Thursday, March 31, 2005

Anyway, what does that mean that people that can't afford to buy houses in CA at all, come and buy their first house here in another state? Where is this going to go? Is this area, like Oregon, going to become a land of tenants to the state of CA?

I just got the big pain-in-the-ass pet molecule paper done last night - really happy there. This has been a hard term. But, generally I'm happy. It's weird because I literally have a lot less to worry about. It's not that I wasn't happy in S. - I love it there - but I was worried in the back of my mind all the time about all the things I felt I wasn't doing. I always had thoughts about "I'm alone...will I always be alone....will I own a house again....what will I do for my career..." so it's like I've set out to change these things, I have changed them. I don't think I just decided to go down a list one day and start crossing them off...

I used to think I was just a generally unhappy person - but I'm not. I think I just have this basic simple list of things that I want out of life - and I really, really want them. And for many years I haven't had them or had access to them. Here, suddenly and finally, I do. So my outlook is different and a lot happier I think. It's been hard to even understand this - I mean I can say that "someday I'd like to own a house again" but it wasn't concrete. I could have said "someday I'd like to get married" but even the thought that maybe these aren't the things that I want - you can't really know.

I have to wonder what would have happened if 9/11 hadn't happened. Would I have decided to leave S. sooner? Part of what I experienced was that the economy just seemed to collapse about the time I got there, so it was hard to relocate or go anywhere for about four years. I'm not sure what made me want to change things when I did - maybe it was the job openings, mayb I got fed up with not being able

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

We're moved in - got the cabinets (inside) finished last week working at night after jobs, etc.
The moving was done this past weekend - sadly, I had to work on Sat. so hubby had to do the main move with friends - BUT, because of Easter, we got the rental truck a whole extra day for free. THAT was cool. So much of this has gone really smoothly - it's almost like a trap or something - get moved in, and the doors slam shut, never to open again. : )

So far - it's a happy nightmare - all of our stuff is in the new place, but it's jumbled into piles, etc. until we can decide where to put stuff.

Also, we still have some minor fixit issues that degrade general quality of life - the show needs a new head, we need some type of cover for the drain opening before we injure ourselves, there aren't adequate outlets in the baths, etc. so I can't dry my hair in there. But - on a lighter note, we did get the plumber to come out and fix the leaking house-shutoff valve, so at least we have the water turned on everywhere it's not leaking.

It's crazy how the market is going here - since we got this place, a couple of new listings in our area are going for as much as $70,000 more than we just paid. Granted, those places are fixed up, may have some square footage added, etc. but they don't have $70,000 worth of improvements over what we have now. It's insane. On one hand I like the idea of instant equity, on the other, I don't think this is a good thing socially. And I have to keep wondering why this is happening - when will the bubble pop, etc.

There was an excellent column in the NYTs today:

Too Much Capital: Why It Is Getting Harder to Find a Good InvestmentPublished: March 25, 2005 - FLOYD NORRIS

THERE is too much capital in the world. And that means that those who own the capital - investors - are in for some unhappy times.
That thesis may sound inherently unlikely, but it explains a lot. Those with capital find they must pay high prices for investments that are likely to produce only a little income. The relative importance of things other than capital, like commodities and cheap labor, has grown.

Evidence of the capital glut can be seen in interest rates. Market rates are low, and even when central banks set out to raise short-term rates, longer-term rates are slow to move. Little additional yield is available to those who buy very risky bonds. For the same reason, stock prices are high. Profit disappointments may not cause the stock market to plunge, since the capital will have to go somewhere. But the return on the underlying investments is likely to be below what investors have expected.
With capital in a weakening position, returns that once would have gone to owners of capital have gradually been redirected. That is one way to explain the surge in management compensation in the last two decades. In the early 1980's, when interest rates were high and stock prices low, the average chief executive received no stock options in any given year. Now nearly all get sizable grants, and one study found that chief executive pay rose faster than that of any group save for professional athletes and movie stars. Those who provided the capital had less power to demand the profits from the enterprises they financed.
Another sign of excess capital can be seen in what Argentina did to its creditors - and in how they reacted. When Argentina defaulted on its debt in December 2001, many thought it would eventually negotiate a deal with creditors that was similar to previous arrangements made by countries in default. Instead, this year it imposed far harsher terms and refused to talk about them. The vast majority of the bondholders meekly went along and bonds of other emerging markets have not suffered.
Emboldened, Argentina's government is sounding an uncompromising note regarding foreign-owned utilities and oil companies. It is betting that it can get away with treating the owners of capital badly and it may be right.
Why is there too much capital? One answer is that central banks reacted to the bursting of the technology bubble by cutting interest rates by too much for too long. The resulting liquidity might in other times have sent inflation soaring, but now China's emergence has placed offsetting deflationary pressures on consumer goods prices. The excess liquidity is sloshing around world capital markets.
At the same time, China's emergence is spurring investment that the world may not need. The world automobile industry is plagued by overcapacity, but every car company believes it must have plants in China.
We have seen too much capital before, but not on a worldwide basis. It flooded into Japan in the 1980's when money there was cheap and the success of the Japanese economy obvious. Japanese business still suffers from excess capacity. Excessive investment in telecommunications in the late 1990's left a lot of unused fiber optic cable.
The excess of capital is bad news for wealthy economies, especially as it is happening when aging populations in Japan, Europe and the United States need good investments to finance retirement. But it should be good news for economies that need capital to develop.
Capital will not remain in excess forever. Money will be spent on consumption rather than investment, and new technologies and rising demand will eventually create more uses for a supply of capital that will have been depleted as low returns discourage saving. But for those with capital, that could be a slow and painful process.


This makes a lot of sense when you look at small investors and the whole housing thing right now. I've long suspected something like this - that there's just too much cash floating around and not enough places to invest it. Hence, real estate is just getting uncontrollable. A lot of people are borrowing a lot of money to buy this stuff- but I think they're incompetition with folks that just have a lot of cash on hand, so not everyone's getting a big loan to do this stuff. Then - add into the equation what's happening with California. This makes me completely sick. There was another article in sfgate today:

BUYING BLIND The urge to own and the inability to do so here sends one man on an Oregon odyssey and teaches a lesson in trust
Mal Karman, Special to The Chronicle
Sunday, March 27, 2005

Nobody in their right mind would plunk down real, hard cash for a used computer or a so-called pre-owned car without first checking it out.
And the idea of buying a house sight unseen is completely off the charts -- or so half a dozen people warned me.
Nevertheless, that's exactly what I did with the largest single purchase of my life, a place more than 500 miles from where I nest in San Francisco.
To be sure, this isn't the first time I've been called insane. (In fact, after going to Iran last year, I'm kinda getting used to it.) But I did land a 1,235-square-foot, single-story, two-bedroom, 1 1/2-bath single-family home in Lake Oswego, Ore., 25 minutes from downtown Portland, for the price of a flower box in San Francisco.
Before you get the idea that I've done this kind of thing before in someplace like Scottsdale, Ariz., or Keokuk, Iowa, let me assure you that I am a first-time buyer and that nobody knows less about real estate than I do. My experience with real estate agents was limited to finding them at my front door and being told that the house I was living in was being sold from under me.
The last time this happened, eight years ago in Golden Gate Heights, I couldn't manage a $328,000 mortgage. I thought I needed $65,600 in cash for a down payment. Who knew about creative loans? Who knew about designer mortgages? And, yes, I still have nightmares about losing the place.
Today, it is worth $1.4 million -- as is just about everything else in the Bay Area with four walls and a flush toilet. Unless I write a New York Times best-seller, it's too late for a mortal with my budget to make a go here in homeownership.
I first became aware of the Portland housing market during the summer of 2003. I was visiting friends Rich and Megan and floating (yes, face up) in their pool when I realized their new West Hills home was a big leap from the 1908 duplex they purchased in 1998 in the northwest part of the city.
Now they look at sprawling pines and eucalyptus that surround their woodsy hillside instead of an asphalt driveway, and I wondered how they had parlayed their space into a two-story, four-bedroom, redwood-decked mini- estate in just a few years. They told me about location. They told me about having a renter in place before they bought their duplex. They told me about their trump card, an agent named Ray Ross in Lake Oswego.
It took me half a year (not bad for the ultimate procrastinator) to call this ace of diamonds and tell him I wanted to play the real estate game. I wanted to buy a sprawling 3-acre waterfront mansion with panoramic views but would settle for anything with a roof in the now-defunct category of "affordable."
I wanted something I could rent immediately to tenants somewhat more stable than nomads or Confederate soldiers. And I wanted to be on the west side of the Willamette River, in proximity to Rich and Megan in Portland and to Megan's mother, Judy, in Lake Oswego. I always insist my support system be close at hand.
Because I was so far away, Ray asked how I intended to look at properties. "Just let me know you've got something," I said, "and I'll fly up."
Several months later, following my trip to the Middle East, I obtained my Pacific Northwest Real Estate 101 equivalency diploma in several conversations with my broker. He educated me about what was possible with the money I had to work with. Then one Saturday morning, he phoned with what he called a slam- dunk, a cute little house on the north shore with a view of the lake. "So how much time do I have to get up there?" I asked.
"Oh, it'll be gone by tomorrow," he said with certainty. "But there's a picture of it on the Internet, if you want to take a look."
I logged on and checked it out with a magnifying glass. The postage stamp- size photo indicated the place had windows. It had doors. A roof. Trees. A view. Asking price was $328,000, a number that still reminds me of Golden Gate Heights and brings on fits of angst. What was I to do? "Make a bid," I could almost hear Ray thinking.
On the one hand, it seemed like the right move, at least as I imagined it to be. The trouble is, it's never what you imagine it to be. On the other, my money was lying in the bank like a drugged possum, collecting a whopping 1 percent. Anything near the lake should be able to beat that, I reasoned. I swallowed hard, mopped my brow and put in an offer for $320,000. Ray said he'd keep me informed.
The following day I learned someone had come in at $350,000 -- and didn't get it. Another hungry house-hunter offered to top the highest figure by $10,000. That took care of any lingering doubts I'd had about not meeting the asking price.
At this point, anyone truly serious about buying would have shaken free of this long-distance panning and gone up there to investigate. It's a different Portland when you're hunting for property instead of floating in a pool. You're checking out shopping centers, access roads and schools instead of cloud formations. But I couldn't get away. And when Megan offered to be my eyes and ears, I just began to think maybe there was a way to make this work, after all.
A few weeks passed and Ray called with a listing for a house in the First Edition section of Lake Oswego. It was within walking distance to the spiffy new shopping center -- vaguely reminiscent of those in Mystic, Conn. -- sporting Tudor-style buildings by the water, but the property was also on the main drag and that meant a lot of street noise and traffic.
In my mind, I started putting 8-foot-high hedges around the lot to seal it off. It listed at $298,000, yet the place didn't move my needle. It had all the charm of a trailer park in Lubbock, Texas, at least as it was presented on the Internet.
To be sure, I asked Megan to check it out for me. She agreed the exterior lacked character but was pleasantly surprised by the remodeled interior, new appliances and its overall warmth. But we all felt it might be tough to rent. I decided not to make an offer.
The First Edition house stayed on the market for months and the next time Ray and I spoke he had just learned they were dropping the price to $268,000, a figure he thought the lot alone was worth. I started the whole mulling process again. Even if I leveled the house and put up something smart and architectural, as he suggested, I didn't think I could print currency fast enough to keep up with the costs.
If I bought it, I would have to sit on it for a couple of years and make up the difference between the mortgage and what I could get for rent. That would put me roughly $400 in the red each month.
Nevertheless, I made an offer at $260,000 and figured I would invest an additional $8,000 to camouflage the place. If I buried it in shrubs, I might convince a potential renter he was living in a forest instead of a rectangle. But it sold quickly for the new asking and I was back to square one.
The next time Ray called, he had a line on a two-bedroom home off Boone's Ferry Road, one of the main drags in Lake Oswego. It was on a dead-end street, which meant little traffic, in a good neighborhood with plenty of trees and upscale homes.
The asking price was $210,000. I checked it on the Internet and it fell in line with similar listings nearby. What's more, there was a tenant already in it who wanted to stay.
With her kids in tow, Megan became my eyes again. She told me she liked it and thought it would work for me. I offered $204,000 almost immediately, but a week went by before I heard back. The seller declined my offer and countered with $211,000, a $1,000 increase from the original listing that so ticked me off I went into hibernation and began plucking turkeys for the holidays.
Ray encouraged me to have another look at it. Rather than cut off my nose to spite my face, which is what I usually do, I bid up to the original asking price, an offer that was accepted.
Networking through Ray, I contacted Allan Mohr, a broker with Mortgage Express, who suggested a five-year adjustable-rate loan. Instead of putting 20 percent down, I went with 10 percent and a secondary loan of $21,000 to skirt mortgage insurance requirements. My monthly payments would come to $1,024. My tenants would pay $1,000 in rent. These were numbers that sounded as soothing as Chopin's Etude.
One month after closing, I finally flew up to Portland to see what I had gotten myself into.
My first day in, I drove by my new toy, the first house I have owned since the one that came with my Lionel train set. It was indeed on a great street, perhaps 60 yards from the main road, in a very quiet, safe, woodsy neighborhood.
My initial impression was that it looked like an oversized birdhouse, but the following day when Ray took me over there to install a dryer exhaust tube, I was surprised by the breadth of the living room, its vaulted ceiling and wood-burning stove, a large master bedroom with adjoining deck and bath, and a nicely proportioned second bedroom with built-in floor-to-ceiling bookshelves.
While I checked out every nook, Ray crawled under the house and installed the exhaust tubing. Then the two of us climbed on the roof and dug four years of pine needles out from between cedar shake shingles.
It was no easy thing for me, terrified of heights, to scale an extension ladder and spend an entire afternoon 2 1/2 stories in outer space. But this guy also got me to spend more than $200,000 for something I had never laid eyes on. Blind faith? Dumb luck? I don't know. Sometimes, if it feels right in your gut, you just have to go along -- and trust.
Mal Karman is a San Francisco screenwriter and filmmaker. E-mail him at
foxbat7@aol.com.

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

I've got so much to do....

But it'll be okay - out of sorts b/c of a trip to Minnesota over the wknd.

Sometimes i feel worthless -I just can't get it together. I've had a bunch or rebates and free coupons, but I've been so busy that I haven't been able to use them. I can't get my taxes done - there's just too much going on.

We did get taxes mostly finished last night, and I got most of boss's budget spent. So that was good. I'm actually a wee bit bored right now - always lots o' stuff to do, but I'm catching up a lil' bit. I think that's part of my personal psychosis - I'm always running around with 'too much stuff to do' that I put off and feel quilty about. But when I take a bite and do some of this stuff and get it done, then I feel 'bored' and like there's not enough on my plate.

Wednesday, March 23, 2005

Man am I tired! We went over and did painting last night, have the Kilz coat down. I'm working late tonight. Hate it - have a headache. Oh well - the best thing about my job is that they're willing to pay me to do nothing. :)

I am just physically tired, though. I've gained weight - not sure hwo much, but my schedule has just been out of control. I might say I was foolish to try to take classes this term - but how was I to know that we'd buy a house? I thought the wedding would be a small thing, but it was bigger (and nicer!) than I imagined.

I am glad I dropped bch - tests came back and the class was a 40% average. I can take it later - and the truth is, 20 years from now I won't remember even taking this class - only that trying to do this while working full-time was a pain in the ass. But I will always cherish my wedding and the little house we just bought. What a trip!

I learn I'm 96% Water

and stare out over the edge of this little
dinghy I've named The 4 Percent. Such
a large sea . . .! Such a tiny
motor: this spermtail whipping like crazy . . .!
"The sailor is the sea." How
Zen! I float in my floating.
The body bobs in its life.

(Albert Goldbarth)

Sunday, March 20, 2005

Day three - appliances came in early this morning. The faucets leak in the laundry. I have to reverse the fridge door. The dishwasher has to be installed. Have we bought a money pit? SO agrees that we should buy a steamcleaner for carpet. Can use it for the furninture too.

Saturday, March 19, 2005

Basically, the material we're covering isn't as hard as what was in MIC, I just can't focus. Dammit!!!!!

Sitting at nearby coffee house. I'm tired, my arms hurt this week from using them after months of inactivity. Got to get back to weightlifting...

So, we've been taking boxes of stuff and small things over to new house. Things are looking better - got most of the windows covered. Carpets are cleaned! Yeah!!!

Now - trying to study for BCH test. I probably have to drop this. It makes me sad. I have so much stuff to do - and I just can't focus on this, there's too much going on. I want to push things back and focus, but I just can't. The truth is, I will always look back and think how cool it was to first be married and first buying this house with SO. I probably won't remember failing the BCH class. : ) The suck thing is that I've already had a way harder version of this - it should be easy. BUt I'm just that distracted. And, I have to get good grades in the O-Chem classes, and those are more fundamental. Mental being that operative part. Time to look at the schedule. I'm probably buying myself nothing by staying in this thing - I'm still going to be out of schedule with it because I wan't planning to take 462 until next spring.

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Happy St. Pat's!!!!

We got the $%&#(*$@ dishwasher installed today. Couldn't believe it. I thought I was going to have a nervous breakdown first. But it seems to work okay. We got a steam cleaner Monday night - SO is working on cleaning the carpets. I put up some of the window coverings I bought. I will probably always look at them and think of nearly getting attacked when I bought them. I need to think with less stess. It's not good for me. But - working on the house is fun. We've been married one day short of two weeks. I like SO - I think this was a good thing. Still need to sent thank you notes. Dang!

Went to SO's moms and had a great dinner with traditional Irish hamburgers, ale, and green cake. It was awesome.

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

6th Day....like the movie. So - monday was hideous - went to local shopping venue and was physically attacked by stupid vicious self-righteous mormon freaks with 6 kids. I am scarred by this - I sound like a fussy gay guy - but what the hell is wrong with people? I want to have a sense of humor, but then people may stone me to death.

Anyway - got the window coverings, etc. Got the fridge reversed yesterday. We have leak problems in various places fun fun fun. Still installing the dishwasher. I'm ready to freak out and call someone to do this - it's so much work and we're way behind where I wanted to be at this point. GOt a t-connector, plumbing tape, romex, wire nuts, and a water hose. So, we have all the stuff and it shouldn't be too hard, it's just a lot of things in a really confined space where we have to combine electricity, water in and a hose drain, so none of the water can cross the elec. - it's a little nerve-wracking.

God bless SO's mom - she has been such a big help - she feeds us every meal. We're having to work so hard to get this done, we haven't had time to stop and fix food.

Saturday, March 12, 2005

Second day of house. We took down this really scary industrial flourescent light box in the front bedroom. It matched the industrial berber carpet in the bedrooms. Trying to decide what we want to do with the carpets. Probably clean for now and rip up later. Went to order appliances, took SO's mom to look at inside. Appliances to arrive tomorrow - weird to get deliver on Sunday, but hey, they'll do it and it's free.

Friday, March 11, 2005

We just bought a house and got the keys. The realtor presented them on a set of balloons. We're probably going to need to sell the balloons before this is over. No - seriously, we went in tonight and got a look at the place - it's cute. Started taking down the bathroom mirrors without thinking. But - there's so much pristine 60's stuff - it's icky. It'll be fun to transform this into something else.