We're moved in - got the cabinets (inside) finished last week working at night after jobs, etc.
The moving was done this past weekend - sadly, I had to work on Sat. so hubby had to do the main move with friends - BUT, because of Easter, we got the rental truck a whole extra day for free. THAT was cool. So much of this has gone really smoothly - it's almost like a trap or something - get moved in, and the doors slam shut, never to open again. : )
So far - it's a happy nightmare - all of our stuff is in the new place, but it's jumbled into piles, etc. until we can decide where to put stuff.
Also, we still have some minor fixit issues that degrade general quality of life - the show needs a new head, we need some type of cover for the drain opening before we injure ourselves, there aren't adequate outlets in the baths, etc. so I can't dry my hair in there. But - on a lighter note, we did get the plumber to come out and fix the leaking house-shutoff valve, so at least we have the water turned on everywhere it's not leaking.
It's crazy how the market is going here - since we got this place, a couple of new listings in our area are going for as much as $70,000 more than we just paid. Granted, those places are fixed up, may have some square footage added, etc. but they don't have $70,000 worth of improvements over what we have now. It's insane. On one hand I like the idea of instant equity, on the other, I don't think this is a good thing socially. And I have to keep wondering why this is happening - when will the bubble pop, etc.
There was an excellent column in the NYTs today:
Too Much Capital: Why It Is Getting Harder to Find a Good InvestmentPublished: March 25, 2005 - FLOYD NORRISTHERE is too much capital in the world. And that means that those who own the capital - investors - are in for some unhappy times.
That thesis may sound inherently unlikely, but it explains a lot. Those with capital find they must pay high prices for investments that are likely to produce only a little income. The relative importance of things other than capital, like commodities and cheap labor, has grown.
Evidence of the capital glut can be seen in interest rates. Market rates are low, and even when central banks set out to raise short-term rates, longer-term rates are slow to move. Little additional yield is available to those who buy very risky bonds. For the same reason, stock prices are high. Profit disappointments may not cause the stock market to plunge, since the capital will have to go somewhere. But the return on the underlying investments is likely to be below what investors have expected.
With capital in a weakening position, returns that once would have gone to owners of capital have gradually been redirected. That is one way to explain the surge in management compensation in the last two decades. In the early 1980's, when interest rates were high and stock prices low, the average chief executive received no stock options in any given year. Now nearly all get sizable grants, and one study found that chief executive pay rose faster than that of any group save for professional athletes and movie stars. Those who provided the capital had less power to demand the profits from the enterprises they financed.
Another sign of excess capital can be seen in what Argentina did to its creditors - and in how they reacted. When Argentina defaulted on its debt in December 2001, many thought it would eventually negotiate a deal with creditors that was similar to previous arrangements made by countries in default. Instead, this year it imposed far harsher terms and refused to talk about them. The vast majority of the bondholders meekly went along and bonds of other emerging markets have not suffered.
Emboldened, Argentina's government is sounding an uncompromising note regarding foreign-owned utilities and oil companies. It is betting that it can get away with treating the owners of capital badly and it may be right.
Why is there too much capital? One answer is that central banks reacted to the bursting of the technology bubble by cutting interest rates by too much for too long. The resulting liquidity might in other times have sent inflation soaring, but now China's emergence has placed offsetting deflationary pressures on consumer goods prices. The excess liquidity is sloshing around world capital markets.
At the same time, China's emergence is spurring investment that the world may not need. The world automobile industry is plagued by overcapacity, but every car company believes it must have plants in China.
We have seen too much capital before, but not on a worldwide basis. It flooded into Japan in the 1980's when money there was cheap and the success of the Japanese economy obvious. Japanese business still suffers from excess capacity. Excessive investment in telecommunications in the late 1990's left a lot of unused fiber optic cable.
The excess of capital is bad news for wealthy economies, especially as it is happening when aging populations in Japan, Europe and the United States need good investments to finance retirement. But it should be good news for economies that need capital to develop.
Capital will not remain in excess forever. Money will be spent on consumption rather than investment, and new technologies and rising demand will eventually create more uses for a supply of capital that will have been depleted as low returns discourage saving. But for those with capital, that could be a slow and painful process.This makes a lot of sense when you look at small investors and the whole housing thing right now. I've long suspected something like this - that there's just too much cash floating around and not enough places to invest it. Hence, real estate is just getting uncontrollable. A lot of people are borrowing a lot of money to buy this stuff- but I think they're incompetition with folks that just have a lot of cash on hand, so not everyone's getting a big loan to do this stuff. Then - add into the equation what's happening with California. This makes me completely sick. There was another article in sfgate today:
BUYING BLIND The urge to own and the inability to do so here sends one man on an Oregon odyssey and teaches a lesson in trust
Mal Karman, Special to The Chronicle
Sunday, March 27, 2005
Nobody in their right mind would plunk down real, hard cash for a used computer or a so-called pre-owned car without first checking it out.
And the idea of buying a house sight unseen is completely off the charts -- or so half a dozen people warned me.
Nevertheless, that's exactly what I did with the largest single purchase of my life, a place more than 500 miles from where I nest in San Francisco.
To be sure, this isn't the first time I've been called insane. (In fact, after going to Iran last year, I'm kinda getting used to it.) But I did land a 1,235-square-foot, single-story, two-bedroom, 1 1/2-bath single-family home in Lake Oswego, Ore., 25 minutes from downtown Portland, for the price of a flower box in San Francisco.
Before you get the idea that I've done this kind of thing before in someplace like Scottsdale, Ariz., or Keokuk, Iowa, let me assure you that I am a first-time buyer and that nobody knows less about real estate than I do. My experience with real estate agents was limited to finding them at my front door and being told that the house I was living in was being sold from under me.
The last time this happened, eight years ago in Golden Gate Heights, I couldn't manage a $328,000 mortgage. I thought I needed $65,600 in cash for a down payment. Who knew about creative loans? Who knew about designer mortgages? And, yes, I still have nightmares about losing the place.
Today, it is worth $1.4 million -- as is just about everything else in the Bay Area with four walls and a flush toilet. Unless I write a New York Times best-seller, it's too late for a mortal with my budget to make a go here in homeownership.
I first became aware of the Portland housing market during the summer of 2003. I was visiting friends Rich and Megan and floating (yes, face up) in their pool when I realized their new West Hills home was a big leap from the 1908 duplex they purchased in 1998 in the northwest part of the city.
Now they look at sprawling pines and eucalyptus that surround their woodsy hillside instead of an asphalt driveway, and I wondered how they had parlayed their space into a two-story, four-bedroom, redwood-decked mini- estate in just a few years. They told me about location. They told me about having a renter in place before they bought their duplex. They told me about their trump card, an agent named Ray Ross in Lake Oswego.
It took me half a year (not bad for the ultimate procrastinator) to call this ace of diamonds and tell him I wanted to play the real estate game. I wanted to buy a sprawling 3-acre waterfront mansion with panoramic views but would settle for anything with a roof in the now-defunct category of "affordable."
I wanted something I could rent immediately to tenants somewhat more stable than nomads or Confederate soldiers. And I wanted to be on the west side of the Willamette River, in proximity to Rich and Megan in Portland and to Megan's mother, Judy, in Lake Oswego. I always insist my support system be close at hand.
Because I was so far away, Ray asked how I intended to look at properties. "Just let me know you've got something," I said, "and I'll fly up."
Several months later, following my trip to the Middle East, I obtained my Pacific Northwest Real Estate 101 equivalency diploma in several conversations with my broker. He educated me about what was possible with the money I had to work with. Then one Saturday morning, he phoned with what he called a slam- dunk, a cute little house on the north shore with a view of the lake. "So how much time do I have to get up there?" I asked.
"Oh, it'll be gone by tomorrow," he said with certainty. "But there's a picture of it on the Internet, if you want to take a look."
I logged on and checked it out with a magnifying glass. The postage stamp- size photo indicated the place had windows. It had doors. A roof. Trees. A view. Asking price was $328,000, a number that still reminds me of Golden Gate Heights and brings on fits of angst. What was I to do? "Make a bid," I could almost hear Ray thinking.
On the one hand, it seemed like the right move, at least as I imagined it to be. The trouble is, it's never what you imagine it to be. On the other, my money was lying in the bank like a drugged possum, collecting a whopping 1 percent. Anything near the lake should be able to beat that, I reasoned. I swallowed hard, mopped my brow and put in an offer for $320,000. Ray said he'd keep me informed.
The following day I learned someone had come in at $350,000 -- and didn't get it. Another hungry house-hunter offered to top the highest figure by $10,000. That took care of any lingering doubts I'd had about not meeting the asking price.
At this point, anyone truly serious about buying would have shaken free of this long-distance panning and gone up there to investigate. It's a different Portland when you're hunting for property instead of floating in a pool. You're checking out shopping centers, access roads and schools instead of cloud formations. But I couldn't get away. And when Megan offered to be my eyes and ears, I just began to think maybe there was a way to make this work, after all.
A few weeks passed and Ray called with a listing for a house in the First Edition section of Lake Oswego. It was within walking distance to the spiffy new shopping center -- vaguely reminiscent of those in Mystic, Conn. -- sporting Tudor-style buildings by the water, but the property was also on the main drag and that meant a lot of street noise and traffic.
In my mind, I started putting 8-foot-high hedges around the lot to seal it off. It listed at $298,000, yet the place didn't move my needle. It had all the charm of a trailer park in Lubbock, Texas, at least as it was presented on the Internet.
To be sure, I asked Megan to check it out for me. She agreed the exterior lacked character but was pleasantly surprised by the remodeled interior, new appliances and its overall warmth. But we all felt it might be tough to rent. I decided not to make an offer.
The First Edition house stayed on the market for months and the next time Ray and I spoke he had just learned they were dropping the price to $268,000, a figure he thought the lot alone was worth. I started the whole mulling process again. Even if I leveled the house and put up something smart and architectural, as he suggested, I didn't think I could print currency fast enough to keep up with the costs.
If I bought it, I would have to sit on it for a couple of years and make up the difference between the mortgage and what I could get for rent. That would put me roughly $400 in the red each month.
Nevertheless, I made an offer at $260,000 and figured I would invest an additional $8,000 to camouflage the place. If I buried it in shrubs, I might convince a potential renter he was living in a forest instead of a rectangle. But it sold quickly for the new asking and I was back to square one.
The next time Ray called, he had a line on a two-bedroom home off Boone's Ferry Road, one of the main drags in Lake Oswego. It was on a dead-end street, which meant little traffic, in a good neighborhood with plenty of trees and upscale homes.
The asking price was $210,000. I checked it on the Internet and it fell in line with similar listings nearby. What's more, there was a tenant already in it who wanted to stay.
With her kids in tow, Megan became my eyes again. She told me she liked it and thought it would work for me. I offered $204,000 almost immediately, but a week went by before I heard back. The seller declined my offer and countered with $211,000, a $1,000 increase from the original listing that so ticked me off I went into hibernation and began plucking turkeys for the holidays.
Ray encouraged me to have another look at it. Rather than cut off my nose to spite my face, which is what I usually do, I bid up to the original asking price, an offer that was accepted.
Networking through Ray, I contacted Allan Mohr, a broker with Mortgage Express, who suggested a five-year adjustable-rate loan. Instead of putting 20 percent down, I went with 10 percent and a secondary loan of $21,000 to skirt mortgage insurance requirements. My monthly payments would come to $1,024. My tenants would pay $1,000 in rent. These were numbers that sounded as soothing as Chopin's Etude.
One month after closing, I finally flew up to Portland to see what I had gotten myself into.
My first day in, I drove by my new toy, the first house I have owned since the one that came with my Lionel train set. It was indeed on a great street, perhaps 60 yards from the main road, in a very quiet, safe, woodsy neighborhood.
My initial impression was that it looked like an oversized birdhouse, but the following day when Ray took me over there to install a dryer exhaust tube, I was surprised by the breadth of the living room, its vaulted ceiling and wood-burning stove, a large master bedroom with adjoining deck and bath, and a nicely proportioned second bedroom with built-in floor-to-ceiling bookshelves.
While I checked out every nook, Ray crawled under the house and installed the exhaust tubing. Then the two of us climbed on the roof and dug four years of pine needles out from between cedar shake shingles.
It was no easy thing for me, terrified of heights, to scale an extension ladder and spend an entire afternoon 2 1/2 stories in outer space. But this guy also got me to spend more than $200,000 for something I had never laid eyes on. Blind faith? Dumb luck? I don't know. Sometimes, if it feels right in your gut, you just have to go along -- and trust.
Mal Karman is a San Francisco screenwriter and filmmaker. E-mail him at foxbat7@aol.com.